- BTC-USD
-1.37%
Bitcoin (BTC) briefly surged over $66,800 this week, its strongest level in more than a month, before slipping back. Consecutive ETF inflows have pulled money back into the market after a prolonged period of outflows.
Still, every bounce revives the same question. Is this the low, or another bear-market rally that fades?
Why the Bitcoin Rebound Looks Fragile
The ETF channel bled through May and June as investors pulled out. That trend has now reversed. Roughly $981.2 million in net inflows returned across 7 trading days from July 14
The last inflow streak of a similar length occurred ahead of Bitcoin’s October 2025 rally, though such streaks do not guarantee a repeat.
The rebound, however, reveals a growing divergence beneath the surface. While spot Bitcoin ETFs are once again absorbing supply, other market indicators point to more cautious positioning among professional traders.
ETF Buyers and Professional Desks Pull Apart
The Coinbase Premium Index has remained negative for more than 900 cumulative hours, the longest stretch in 2 years.
A negative premium suggests relatively weaker demand, or stronger selling pressure, on Coinbase than on Binance, pointing to continued caution among professional market participants.
Analyst Darkfost tied that caution to sticky inflation, rising oil prices, and a less transparent Fed under its new chairman.
“This combination is what’s keeping institutional selling pressure going, as we’re still seeing today,” the analyst noted.
Together, these signals suggest ETF inflows are supporting prices, but the recovery has yet to gain confirmation from broader spot market demand, leaving the rally vulnerable if ETF inflows begin to fade.
Four-Year Cycle or Macro Asset
The divergence feeds a broader debate over what drives Bitcoin today. In a July 22 research note, Grayscale outlined 2 lenses for the bear market.
The four-year cycle view, tied to halving events, points to further downside and a possible bottom in September or October. Grayscale argued instead that Bitcoin has matured into a macro asset.
“The current bear market has also featured a major shift in Fed policy expectations and rising real interest rates. Naturally, if macro factors are in the driver’s seat, Bitcoin’s price could bottom when these macro factors turn around,” Zach Pandl, Grayscale Head of Research, said.
Meanwhile, Glassnode drew the line that settles the near-term argument.
“This is still a bear-market rally until the market proves otherwise, and the proof has an address,” the firm wrote.
