Galaxy Research cuts odds of passage to 30% as partisan tensions and competing priorities push the legislation into an increasingly narrow window
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byEditorial Team
Jul. 28, 2026
The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, the most ambitious attempt at comprehensive crypto regulation in US history, is losing steam at exactly the wrong time. Senate Majority Leader John Thune has effectively shelved the bill until after the August recess, prioritizing nominations and Russia sanctions over what was supposed to be a landmark piece of financial legislation.
Galaxy Research has slashed the odds of the bill actually becoming law to 30%, down from 50% just a month ago.
What went wrong
The CLARITY Act had real momentum not long ago. The House passed its version, H.R. 3633, with a surprisingly bipartisan vote of 294-134 on July 17, 2025. Senate committees approved related measures in early 2026.
Then the Senate calendar got crowded. Thune’s decision to deprioritize the bill means any serious floor debate won’t happen until September at the earliest. Galaxy Research has flagged this narrowing legislative window as a primary reason for downgrading the bill’s prospects, noting it would take a “last-ditch effort” to get things done before the political calendar makes passage functionally impossible until 2026.
A new draft of the bill has tried to address some of the friction points. It includes an ethics provision with a sunset clause set for 2029, designed to limit public officials from engaging in activities directly tied to digital assets while they hold office.
Key Democratic senators have said the measure falls short on three fronts: ethics enforcement, illicit finance safeguards, and consumer protections. Partisan tensions surrounding former President Trump’s digital asset holdings have made the ethics debate even thornier. Democrats see the bill as potentially creating favorable conditions for politically connected crypto ventures, while Republicans argue the ethics additions are poison pills designed to kill a bill that the industry desperately needs.
Wall Street wants this badly
Major financial firms including BlackRock, Fidelity, and Goldman Sachs all affirmed their backing for the legislation at the end of July 2026, right as it became clear the bill was headed for the shelf.
Without a clear market structure framework, these firms are stuck navigating a patchwork of SEC enforcement actions, CFTC jurisdictional claims, and state-level rules that sometimes contradict each other.
What this means for investors
The 30% odds from Galaxy Research are worth contextualizing. A month ago, the consensus was essentially a coin flip. If the bill gets pushed to 2026, the entire political landscape could shift with midterm election dynamics, potentially requiring the process to start from scratch.
Investors should watch for two signals. First, whether any Democratic senators break from their caucus to support the revised draft. Second, whether Thune creates a specific floor time commitment for the fall session, because without a concrete date, “September” can easily become “never.”
The broader risk is that the US continues to cede regulatory leadership to jurisdictions like the EU, which implemented its MiCA framework while American lawmakers are still arguing about sunset clauses.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Editorial Team. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.
