The altcoin season index suggests that the long-awaited altseason is yet to come.
On Coin<a href="https://cryptoz7.com/funds-lead-year-to-date-growth-in-tokenized-market-cap-by-7b/” title=”Funds lead year-to-date growth in tokenized market cap by $7B”>MarketCap, the altcoin season index is currently at 41, meaning that less than a half of altcoins beat Bitcoin’s performance over the last 90 days. The website considers 75% to be the threshold for altseason.
However, the BlockchainCenter altcoin season index is at 57. The reason for this discrepancy is that BlockchainCenter takes 50 largest eligible coins into consideration as compared to CoinMarketCap’s 100. Its threshold for altseason is same: 75%.
Bitcoin trades around $63,700 and controls more than half of total crypto capitalization. Ethereum is around $1,625, while Solana’s price hovers near $78. The market is showing strength in some areas, but not near enough to suggest a broad-based rotation into altcoins.
What Is the Altcoin Season Index?
The altcoin season index is a metric that seeks to estimate how many of the major altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin.
CoinMarketCap assesses which of the top 100 eligible cryptocurrencies have beaten the price performance of Bitcoin over 90 days. Stablecoins, asset-backed, and wrapped tokens are excluded.
- Between 0-25: Bitcoin Season
- 26-74: Transitionary
- 75-100: Altcoin Season
For an altcoin season, at least 75% of altcoins should outperform Bitcoin on a price basis during the rolling 90-day window.
BlockchainCenter’s methodology is rather similar but slightly different as they only take the top 50 eligible cryptocurrencies into consideration. That explains the variance between the two websites.
The crucial point is that the altseason is not defined by a couple of assets outperforming Bitcoin. Even if Ethereum and several other coins rallies by double digits, the altcoin season index will not reach 75 unless the majority of other cryptocurrencies follow suit.
Why Is the Altcoin Season Index Still Below 50?
The most apparent reason for the altcoin season index to stay below 50 is Bitcoin’s absolute dominance.
According to CoinGecko, Bitcoin’s market dominance is at around 56.5% as of writing. The asset’s total capitalization stands at approximately $1.28 trillion out of a $2.27 trillion. Stablecoins command another 13.4%, or around $303 billion. Therefore, there is significantly less room for other assets to grow and attract capital.
Bitcoin dominance itself is not the reason for altcoins to struggle, but it surely plays an essential role. Both the altcoin season index and Bitcoin dominance are reflecting similar trends, but in reverse ways. When the lion’s share of capital is in Bitcoin, fewer altcoins can beat its performance. As capital rotates away from Bitcoin, its dominance decreases, and other assets’ overall capitalization increases.
💡 CoinMarketCap | Altcoin Season Index 💡
Bitcoin fell 4% but the Altcoin Season Index jumped 6 points to 44.
Real-time data confirms a capital rotation instead of market panic!Traders are moving funds into assets with strong catalysts:
🔹 Index hit 44 with a massive jump
🔹… pic.twitter.com/Jiw6QstZrJ— CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) June 2, 2026
In 2026, such rotation has not occurred yet. In fact, it has been the Bitcoin that has seen most of the upside in 2026.
Bitcoin Dominance Needs to Fall
A declining trend in Bitcoin dominance would suggest an impending altseason.
There is no specific level that would prompt an immediate start of an altseason, but the current levelsof Bitcoin dominance, which are between 56-59%, are too high.
The most recent example of Bitcoin dominance contraction occurred in 2021, when it dropped from around 69.5% to 38.2%. The entire capitalization rotated away from Bitcoin into Ethereum, DeFi, layer 1s, memecoins, and other assets. A similar move below 55% in Bitcoin dominance would suggest a start of an altseason in 2026.
BITCOIN DOMINANCE BREAKDOWN 🔻
History may be repeating… is another Altcoin Season on deck?
Multi-year resistance rejected again
📉 MACD confirms bearish cross—momentum fading
Last time this setup played out, altcoins exploded( NFA)#AltcoinSeason#Cryptopic.twitter.com/Z8i7gB3nkJ
— Bitcoinsensus (@Bitcoinsensus) January 30, 2026
However, it is not sufficient for Bitcoin dominance to hit 55% in 2026. In fact, a sudden drop in Bitcoin’s price, which will inevitably lead to lower dominance, will not necessarily set the conditions for an altseason. Capital might rotate out of Bitcoin into other asset classes rather than into altcoins.
Ethereum Needs to Start Beating Bitcoin
Ethereum plays a pivotal role in an altseason. As the second-largest cryptocurrency, it often takes the lion’s share of capital inflows after Bitcoin.
In other words, it is a critical indicator of whether other assets will follow, as reflected in the ETH▲$1,761.17/BTC▲$62,630.00 ratio. If Ether is able to outperform Bitcoin, it will set the tone for the rest of the altcoin market.
At the moment, with Bitcoin at $63,700 and ETH around $1,625, Ethereum’s price is at only 0.0255 BTC, or roughly 2.29%. Ethereum’s overall market capitalization is at around 10%, or 2.27 trillion, compared to Bitcoin’s 56.5%. Obviously, there is plenty of room for Ether to rise against Bitcoin.
More Altcoins Need to Rally at the Same Time
An altcoin season index, which is essentially a rolling 90-day price performance of major altcoins against Bitcoin, is the most critical indicator for an altseason. The number of 41 suggests that there is still quite a distance to go.
In other words, the market would need to move from the current 41 to 75, which is a significant jump. It would require most of the major altcoins to beat Bitcoin’s performance.
Altcoin Trading Volume Needs to Broaden
Price is a crucial consideration when discussing an altseason, but it only tells one part of the story.
Altcoin seasons are characterized by rising prices, especially among large-cap cryptocurrencies, increased trading volumes among big coins, and overall positive sentiment towards the market.
Trading volume is an essential component of any assessment of an altseason as volumes ndicate whether more capital is flowing into the market. Large-scale rallies in only a few altcoins will not be sufficient for an altseason. In fact, such a scenario may suggest that the rally is only limited to speculative coins or certain sectors. A true altseason encompasses the entire market.
A more accurate indication of the development of an altseason is a growing trading volume among major cryptocurrencies. If a broad array of market participants is buying Ethereum and other major altcoins, there is a chance that overall capitalization of the altcoin market will rise significantly.
Bitcoin May Need to Stabilize First
One of the most crucial conditions for an altseason is rather counterintuitive, as it suggests that a rising price of bitcoin will hurt the prospects of an altseason.
When bitcoin rises sharply, capital tends to flow into it, leaving alternative assets behind. The exact opposite occurs when bitcoin falls precipitously; with the price of most altcoins dropping faster and often, given their speculative nature and low liquidity.
The most conducive environment for an altseason to emerge is found somewhere between the two, with bitcoin seeing only moderate gains and increased optimism among investors. Eventually, bitcoin enters a consolidation phase, with rising costs discouraging new buyers, and the prospect of additional gains attracting only speculators. With more capital entering other assets, an altseason emerges.
CoinMarketCap describes an altseason similarly, suggesting that it typically follows a bull run in bitcoin.
Subsequently, ether begins to outperform bitcoin, attracting a portion of the capital that has been piling into bitcoin. Finally, other altcoins, including major protocols and small-cap value coins, join the fray.
Bitcoin does not necessarily need to rise again in price for an altseason to emerge. It may simply stop being the preferred choice among investors.
Stablecoin Capital Needs to Move Into Risk Assets
As mentioned above, stablecoins represent a substantial amount of the liquidity in the crypto market. At 13.4%, or $303 billion, they command a considerable chunk of the overall capitalization. One might expect that the large presence of stablecoins highlights the amount of liquidity that can be moved into other risk assets.
Not exactly.
In reality, stablecoins serve the opposite purpose, as they allow investors to hold on to their liquidity without exposing themselves to price volatility.
A more accurate indicator of an impending altseason is a shift in liquidity away from stablecoins and into other assets such as ether and various altcoins. The increase in overall liquidity in crypto is always a positive development, but it needs to be paired with a decrease in bitcoin dominance for an altseason to emerge.
The Altcoin Season Index Needs to Break 50 — Then 75
A reading of 50 in the altcoin season index makes for a convenient psychological threshold, but it is not enough to suggest that the market is set to enter an altseason. In reality, an index of 50 only suggests that the level of diversity in the altcoin market is skewing higher. The real tipping point is when the number crosses 75, according to both websites.
The most important sequence to watch out for is the following:
- Altcoin season index beats 50
- Bitcoin dominance begins to fall
- ETH/BTC strengthens
- More major altcoins outperform Bitcoin
- Trading volume extends beyond just a couple of assets
- Index approaches and crosses 75
If not all of these developments occur, then what the market is witnessing is not an altseason, but rather a bull market for altcoins.
Could Altseason Still Start in 2026?
The BlockchainCenter altcoin season index is at 57, which is already quite close to 75. This suggests that the market is already beginning to rotate into altcoins, but it has yet to affect the long tail of smaller cryptocurrencies.
The next step will be for the strength to move from the largest altcoins, including Ether and Solana, into the broader market.
Why This Altseason Could Be Different
There is one crucial detail to keep in mind: this time around, the altseason will most likely remain rather narrow.
Historically, every altseason has affected the entire crypto market, with everything from privacy coins to memecoins rising significantly. In 2026, the situation is expected to be different, as the institutional adoption of crypto is set to bring additional structural changes to the industry. Institutional investors do not want to expose themselves to price swings, so they are more likely to buy Bitcoin directly rather than diversify into other assets.
At the same time, there is much competition among protocols and assets in terms of attracting liquidity. As a result, the market will see capital flowing into specific sectors that have actual utility, offerings, or a competent team. As such, the altseason of 2026 may very well see a broad array of investors rotating out of Bitcoin, but it will only affect specific areas of the altcoin market, rather than the entire spectrum of 10,000+ cryptocurrencies.
The altcoin season index will most likely cross 75, but it will fail to reflect the indiscriminate gains seen in previous altseasons.
Final Thoughts
The altcoin season index suggests that the crypto market is set to move, but it has yet to enter an altseason. According to CoinMarketCap, the altcoin season index is currently at 41, whereas Ethereum’s dominance over bitcoin is at only 2%. On the other hand the altcoin season index is at 57
Bitcoin continues to command most liquid capital in crypto: specifically around 56.5%.
Crossing 50 on the altcoin season index will be a positive sign, but it will not be enough for an altseason to emerge. Only crossing 75 will be sufficient.
Until then, the market should expect only isolated altcoin rallies, which will entail spectacular gains for some assets without affecting the broader market.
What is the altcoin season index?
The altcoin season index is a metric that estimates how many major altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin.
What is the altcoin season index right now?
The altcoin season index is currently at 41
What level indicates altcoin season?
A level 75 or higher indicates altcoin season.
Does Bitcoin dominance need to fall?
Bitcoin dominance is not a necessary condition for an altseason to emerge, but a downtrend in it usually accompanies the rise in other assets.
What is the biggest signal that altseason has started?
The biggest signal that altseason has started is broad performance, which implies that not just a couple of altcoins, but most of them begin to outperform Bitcoin on a price basis.
