Bitcoin Price Analysis: BTC Blasts Past $84K – Is $90K the Next Target?
Bitcoin is pushing back toward $86K after buyers defended the $80K short-term demand zone once again, with BTC trading close to $85K. The rebound comes as markets price in roughly a 25% chance of another Fed hike at the late October meeting, following September’s quarter-point increase. Meanwhile, the NVM Ratio has climbed to its highest level since early 2026, indicating that BTC might be overvalued in terms of network activity.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
BTC continues to trade within the ascending channel that has defined the recovery from the late-June lows near $58K. The rally carried price into the $86K-$90K supply zone, where the February sell-off began. Two attempts to break through this area produced only wicks toward $87K, as the market was rejected to the downside.
The structure remains constructive as long as Bitcoin holds above the channel’s midpoint, currently near $80K. A decisive daily close above $86K would be needed to break into the supply zone and open the way toward $90K.
Losing the channel midline, however, would shift the focus to the $75K-$78K weekly order block, which was the base of the September rally. Below that, the lower channel boundary near $72K is the final structural support before the recovery channel would be invalidated.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows Bitcoin inside a rising short-term channel since the mid-September low near $75K. After the October 6 rejection from $86K, the price began forming lower highs. Each decline, however, has been absorbed by the $80K demand zone, which now converges with the channel’s lower trendline.
BTC is currently pressing against the 84K–84.3K supply zone, created by the October 12 lower high. A clean break above it would end the short-term sequence of lower highs and bring the 85.6K–86.6K zone, where the October 6 sell-off originated, into play.
A rejection from the $84K level would likely send the price back toward the same $80K demand area. Losing both this zone and the lower trendline would expose the $75K region, mentioned in the daily timeframe analysis. Still, with the price creating a higher low on the 4-hour chart, the market seems to have a valid chance to break above $84K.
On-Chain Analysis
The NVM Ratio on CryptoQuant compares Bitcoin’s market capitalization with the square of its daily active addresses. It is based on Metcalfe’s law, which holds that a network’s value grows with the square of its users. Active addresses act as a proxy for real economic usage, so a rising ratio suggests that valuation is outpacing that activity.
The 30-day EMA of the ratio peaked above 4.5 during Bitcoin’s 2025 run toward its all-time high. It climbed back toward 4.4 in January 2026, shortly before the February sell-off toward $65K. After falling to around 3.0 in August, the metric has rebounded to approximately 4.1, even though BTC still trades roughly a third below its peak.
This does not constitute a sell signal by itself, as ETFs and custodians move much of Bitcoin’s activity off-chain and likely push the ratio higher over time. Still, the elevated reading implies thinner valuation support from network usage, making the $80K demand zone even more important to hold in the short term.
Disclaimer: Information found on CryptoPotato is those of writers quoted. It does not represent the opinions of CryptoPotato on whether to buy, sell, or hold any investments. You are advised to conduct your own research before making any investment decisions. Use provided information at your own risk. See Disclaimer for more information.
