According to Wintermute’s latest market update, Bitcoin’s breakout above the June range appears to be fading as spot ETF withdrawals are exerting selling pressure on Bitcoin in addition to new miner selling, despite a softer US interest rate outlook.
Bitcoin is struggling to maintain the bottom of June’s range after about $390 million worth of US spot BTC▲$62,630.00 ETFs were redeemed between 10 and 14 August, the trading firm said. It was the largest weekly redemption since early July, and there is no obvious additional
Further macro data showed July CPI rising 0.1% month on month, a near-term probability of a September rate hike fading from 50% to about one-third, and the largest drop in retail sales since May 2025. Risk assets were relatively unaffected on Friday; the S&P 500 was up 0.40%, the long-end of Treasuries was down 0.87%, and Bitcoin was down 3.12%.
BTC has traded around $64,000 recently, slightly down from a month ago and far below the October 2025 high. Wintermute said the muted market reaction to lower-rate hike expectations suggests monetary policy is losing its ability to maintain long-term recovery by itself.
Brent crude oil gained 7.91% due to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and the failure of negotiations on a ceasefire. Wintermute warned that the higher Brent is, especially if it stays near $89, the more difficult the August inflation report could be, with the inflation risk shifting away from the Federal Reserve to the oil price.
ETF flows followed a likewise slow pattern with US spot Bitcoin funds logging just a single positive day of inflows for the week, after outflows of approximately $145 million on Monday, $61 million on Wednesday, $131 million on Thursday, and almost $58 million on Friday. On Tuesday, net inflows were just under $5 million.
Miner selling is anotherrms sold 4,300 BTC compared to 3,778 BTC in Q1. Further, Bitcoin held in Riot’s treasury declined to 11,380 BTC and its mining cost per coin increased to $91,000. This contributed to Riot’s quarterly net loss of $237 million
Wintermute holds a long position on $BTC.
However, it holds short positions on $ETH, $SOL, $HYPE, $XRP, and $DOGE. pic.twitter.com/oqHVV3P9NZ
— CW (@CW8900) August 17, 2026
Concurrently, Riot has entered the AI infrastructure business by signing a 20-year contract to sell 191 megawatts of data-center capacity at its Rockdale campus, which was expected to generate $9.1 billion of revenue. Of note, media reports have identified Anthropic as the counterparty on this contract.
Other institutional demand remained relatively strong: Jane Street reported owning more than $1 billion in US spot Bitcoin ETFs in the second quarter, including $828 million of assets in their stake in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF. However, the filing only shows quarter-end positions and does not reflect the entire derivatives exposure.
Wintermute sees competing forces for Bitcoin: improving rates and supply. Until ETF demand or miner selling softens, a break of the range is unlikely in the short term. This creates a mismatch where price action depends on whether the new capital can absorb the supply.
