Bitcoin’s decline has accelerated into the $77K region after buyers lost the $80K support area. The price is now testing a major daily demand zone, while on-chain data shows it approaching the average cost basis of recent holders.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, Bitcoin has decisively broken beneath the ascending channel’s midpoint. The sharp bearish move carried the price through $80K and into the highlighted $75K–$78K demand zone, with BTC currently trading around $77.7K.
This region supported September’s advance, making it an important test for the broader recovery. However, the latest candles show only limited stabilization following the selloff. Holding demand could produce a relief bounce toward $78K–$80K, but buyers would need to reclaim the broken midpoint around $81K to demonstrate a more meaningful improvement.
The bearish continuation scenario remains favored while the price stays beneath these lost levels. A sustained breakdown below $75K would expose the channel’s rising lower boundary around $72K–$73K. Conversely, a strong response from demand and recovery above $81K would weaken the immediate bearish structure.
BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour chart shows a sharp breakdown following another failed recovery beneath the broken ascending trendline. Bitcoin lost the $79.8K support boundary and quickly declined toward $76.3K before consolidating near $77.3K. The modest rebound suggests that buyers have slowed the decline without yet reversing momentum.
The marked $74.9K–$76.3K demand zone is the next immediate defense. A return beneath $76.3K would expose more of this region, while sustained acceptance below $74.9K would strengthen the case for further downside.
On the upside, the recent consolidation around $78K–$78.3K presents the first recovery hurdle. Beyond that, the highlighted $79.8K–$81.9K zone now represents potential overhead supply. Until Bitcoin reclaims this area, rebounds remain vulnerable to forming another lower high within the ongoing correction.
Sentiment Analysis
The Realized Price UTXO Age Bands chart tracks the average on-chain cost basis of coins grouped by age. The latest decline has brought Bitcoin near the realized price of the 1-to-3-month cohort, which has risen sharply toward approximately $76K–$76.5K.
With the market price around $77.3K, these recent holders are approaching aggregate breakeven. This creates an important confluence with the technical demand zone around $75K–$78K. A successful defense could help stabilize sentiment among this cohort, while a sustained move below its cost basis would place it in aggregate unrealized loss and could increase pressure on more sensitive holders.
Meanwhile, the 6-to-12-month cohort’s realized price has declined toward $84K–$85K and remains above spot. This region could become an additional recovery hurdle if holders use a return toward breakeven to reduce exposure.
For now, the approaching $76K–$76.5K cost basis is the more immediate reference point. Its interaction with price could help distinguish a temporary correction into demand from a deeper deterioration, although realized price alone does not guarantee support.
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