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Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan has reiterated a long-term case for Bitcoin reaching $1.3 million by 2035, with institutional allocations central to the thesis.
A 1% allocation from institutions controlling $200 trillion would equal roughly $2 trillion, but Bitwise’s published $1.3 million model depends on much more than that single flow assumption.
Previous Bitcoin targets from Bitwise, Standard Chartered and others have missed or been sharply revised, showing why decade-long price forecasts should be treated as scenarios rather than endpoints.
Bitcoin could reach $1.3 million by 2035 as large institutions gradually allocate a fraction of their portfolios to the asset, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan, reviving one of the industry’s most aggressive long-term price forecasts.
CoinMarketCap highlighted Hougan’s argument that even a 1% Bitcoin allocation from institutions overseeing as much as $200 trillion could materially alter Bitcoin’s supply-demand balance.
$2 Trillion of Potential Capital
The number is enormous: 1% of $200 trillion equals about $2 trillion of potential capital.
But there is an important qualification. Bitwise’s published $1.3 million target is not simply the result of putting $2 trillion into Bitcoin.
Bitwise’s 2025 long-term capital-market assumptions projected Bitcoin at $1.3 million by 2035, equivalent to a 28.3% compound annual growth rate from the report’s starting point.
The model envisioned institutional allocations eventually reaching 1% to 5% of portfolios.
1% Allocation Alone Does Not Explain $1.3 Million
At $1.3 million per coin, Bitcoin’s fully diluted value across its21 million maximum supply would be approximately $27.3 trillion.
That is more than 13 times the $2 trillion represented by a 1% allocation of $200 trillion.
This does not mean $27 trillion of fresh cash must literally enter Bitcoin. Market capitalization is determined by the marginal trading price multiplied by outstanding supply, so relatively smaller inflows can produce much larger changes in market value.
Still, it shows why the $1.3 million thesis requires assumptions beyond institutional allocation.
Hougan laid those out more explicitly in March. He estimated that gold and Bitcoin together represented a roughly $38 trillion store-of-value market, with Bitcoin holding less than 4%. If that market expands to around $121 trillion over a decade, Bitcoin would need approximately 17% of it to support a $1 million valuation, according to his model.
