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100,000$34.92K Vol.
0.3%<a href="https://polymarket.com/event/<a href="https://cryptoz7.com/what-is-defi-compliance/” title=”What is DeFi compliance?”>what-price-will-bitcoin-hit-in-august-2026?via=cryptoslate-kq5z” rel=”nofollow noopener” target=”_blank”>Yes0.25¢No100¢
A move to six figures would likely need a sharp August risk-on impulse: softer U.S. jobs/CPI/PPI prints, falling yields, and sustained ETF-led spot demand.
A hotter inflation run, stronger labor data, or fading ETF inflows would keep BTC below the upper bands and make a $100k print unlikely this month.
AI-Assisted. May contain errors.
85,000$10.71K Vol.
0.8%Yes0.8¢No99¢
This outcome needs a strong August rally driven by cooler macro data and renewed institutional buying, especially around the Aug. 7 jobs report and Aug.
If macro prints stay firm or spot demand stalls, BTC may fail to clear the mid-$70k to low-$80k zone and leave $85k out of reach.
AI-Assisted. May contain errors.
82,500$12.26K Vol.
1.2%Yes1¢No99¢
A clean upside continuation from early-August macro relief could carry Bitcoin into the low-$80k area, particularly if weaker labor or inflation data boosts rate-cut expectations. ETF demand and a risk-on equity tape would help sustain the move through nearby overhead supply.
A choppy month with mixed data or profit-taking after any initial bounce would likely cap BTC below this level.
AI-Assisted. May contain errors.
80,000$2.5K Vol.
1.3%Yes1¢No99¢
Bitcoin can reach $80k if August data softens enough to lift risk assets and keep Treasury yields under pressure, while ETF flows remain supportive. The absence of an August FOMC meeting means CPI, PPI, and jobs data may dominate the repricing path.
If the macro backdrop stays neutral or turns hawkish, BTC may oscillate below $80k without a decisive breakout.
AI-Assisted. May contain errors.
This level is plausible on a moderate August rebound from the low-$60k starting point, especially if one or two key releases come in softer and buyers absorb supply. Continued institutional inflows would help BTC grind through the mid-$70k area.
A lack of follow-through after data-driven spikes, or a quick reversal in risk sentiment, could leave Bitcoin stuck beneath $77.5k.
AI-Assisted. May contain errors.
14 more outcomesListed by target price, highest first
- 75,000$16.98K Vol.
4.6%
Yes5¢No95¢ - 72,500$11.66K Vol.
10.5%
Yes11¢No90¢ - 70,000$11.28K Vol.
23.5%
Yes24¢No77¢ - 67,500$18.88K Vol.
37.5%
Yes38¢No63¢ - 65,000$9.26K Vol.
69.5%
Yes70¢No31¢ - 60,000$12.87K Vol.
62.5%
Yes63¢No38¢ - 57,500$13.88K Vol.
39.5%
Yes40¢No61¢ - 55,000$37.24K Vol.
21.5%
Yes22¢No79¢ - 52,500$38.64K Vol.
12.5%
Yes13¢No88¢ - 50,000$42.33K Vol.
7.4%
Yes7¢No93¢ - 47,500$13.32K Vol.
3.1%
Yes3¢No97¢ - 45,000$24.7K Vol.
2.1%
Yes2¢No98¢ - 42,500$18.27K Vol.
1.4%
Yes1¢No99¢ - 40,000$47.63K Vol.
1.1%
Yes1¢No99¢
Volume$394.9KLiquidity$639.9KOpen Interest$327.62KLast updated28 mins ago
Odds, liquidity, volume, and open interest are
The August hierarchy is best read as starting-point geometry amplified by clustered macro catalysts. Bitcoin enters the month near $63,000, placing $62,500 within roughly 0.8% and $65,000 about 3.2% away. That asymmetry helps explain why a touch below $62,500 carries 91% odds while a move above $65,000 stands at 76.5%. The ordering signals expectations for movement around the starting price before it signals a strong directional conviction.
Nearby barriers measure market noise before directional conviction
The contract concerns prices reached during August, making the intramonth path more important than the final monthly level. Bitcoin can cross both nearby barriers during a volatile round trip. The 60.5% probability assigned to $60,000 and 48.5% at $67,500 extend that path-dependent story: a moderate downward excursion is assigned higher odds, though $60,000 is also closer to the starting point than $67,500.
The probabilities decay sharply beyond those levels. A move above $70,000 is priced at 22.5%, falling to 9.5% at $72,500 and 3.8% at $75,000. On the other side, $55,000 stands at 21.5%, $52,500 at 9.5%, and $50,000 at 4.3%. Similar probabilities near $50,000 and $75,000 point to broadly two-sided extreme risk. The more pronounced downside ordering sits close to spot, where small differences in distance matter most.
The ladder assumes August volatility stays contained
The central hidden assumption is that scheduled macro news can create several-percent swings without producing a lasting regime change. Under that interpretation, Bitcoin can probe $60,000 or $67,500 while the probabilities beyond $70,000 and below $55,000 remain much smaller.
A second assumption concerns timing. The market closes September 1 at 4:00 AM UTC, while the Federal Reserve’s next scheduled FOMC meeting is September 15-16. August therefore contains no scheduled rate decision capable of immediately validating changing policy expectations. Bitcoin will instead respond to economic data, Treasury yields, the dollar and spot demand, with any September policy decision falling outside the resolution window.
Three data releases can challenge the contained-range thesis
The July Employment Situation report arrives August 7 at 8:30 AM ET, followed by July CPI on August 12 and PPI on August 13 at the same time. Their sequence matters. A strong jobs report followed by hotter inflation could lift yields and the dollar, reinforcing the probabilities attached to $60,000 and lower thresholds. Softer inflation that reduces expected policy restraint could support the $67,500 and $70,000 barriers.
Conflicting releases would support the current concentration around nearby levels. For example, weak employment could initially encourage rate-cut expectations, then create concern about economic growth; a hotter CPI five days later could reverse the first move. That two-way response would increase the chance of touching barriers on both sides without establishing a durable trend.
ETF flows are the missing confirmation signal
The supplied research identifies institutional spot ETF demand as another potentialmpanies the market snapshot. A sustained sequence of net inflows would be confirming evidence for the upper thresholds, especially if Bitcoin holds above $65,000 after the CPI release. Persistent outflows combined with rising yields would strengthen the causal case for lower barriers
These are hypothetical confirmation tests, not established explanations for the present prices. ETF flows could also offset macro pressure: strong inflows during a hot inflation week would weaken a simple yields-driven downside thesis, while outflows during softer inflation would challenge the expected risk-asset response.
Balanced tails provide the strongest counter-signal
The clearest challenge to a bearish reading comes from the distant outcomes. Bitcoin reaching $50,000 is priced at 4.3%, close to the 3.8% probability of reaching $75,000. The extreme thresholds continue that pattern, with probabilities near or below 2% on both sides. This balance suggests the market’s downside tilt is concentrated around nearby barriers and heavily influenced by the starting price.
Volume of $111,320, liquidity of $581,000 and open interest of $91,910 make the hierarchy more informative than an inactive set of quotes, while leaving room for rapid adjustment. Sustained trading above $67,500, a clean break below $60,000, aligned CPI and PPI surprises, or a persistent ETF-flow trend would each challenge the contained-range assumption and force the largest changes in the next adjacent thresholds.
Sources
What could reprice it
The July Consumer Price Index release on August 12 is the clearest scheduled August event able to reset rate expectations, yields, and crypto risk appetite.
BLS schedules CPI for 8:30 AM ET. With no August FOMC meeting, inflation and labor data carry unusually direct policy-repricing importance.
Strong signal78%CatalystBLS July CPI release, August 12RiskA CPI surprise may not produce a sustained Bitcoin move
Where the market may be weak
The supplied rules identify binary markets but do not specify the price“hit.”
That leaves material ambiguity around intraday wicks, exchange differences, and settlement verification, despite the threshold prices being easy to read.
Rules risk30%CatalystSettlement-methodology clarificationRiskUnclear measurement can distort threshold interpretation
Counter-signal
Bitcoin’s roughly $63,000 August starting level sits closer to $62,500 than $65,000, while recent repricing favored the lower threshold over the higher one.
The distance asymmetry means a modest decline can validate the downside test before a recovery reaches $65,000; the latest changes reinforce that near-term path risk.
Mixed signal58%CatalystFurther August macro-data repricingRiskShort-term probability moves can reverse quickly
Market details
Resolution criteria
What price will Bitcoin hit in August?
Platform
Category
Crypto › Bitcoin
Close date
September 1, 2026, 4:00 AM UTC
Market rules summary
Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.View full rules
Frequently asked questions
What are the current What price will Bitcoin hit in August odds?
Polymarket reports What price will Bitcoin hit in August odds with ↑ 65,000 at 69.5%, ↓ 60,000 at 62.5%, ↓ 57,500 at 39.5%, and ↑ 67,500 at 37.5%. These probabilities are market-implied and can change as liquidity and trading activity update. The latest market snapshot includes $394.9K volume, $639.9K liquidity, and $327.62K open interest. CryptoSlate last synced this market data at Aug 2, 2026, 00:47 UTC.
What could move the What price will Bitcoin hit in August prediction market odds?
Pricing implies Bitcoin will likely test below $62,500 in August while retaining better-than-even odds of touching $65,000, a two-way range claim. These are underlying binary threshold prices, not mutually exclusive final-price forecasts; a volatile month could produce hits on both sides. Catalysts to watch include August U.S. macro releases, BLS July CPI release, August 12, and Settlement-methodology clarification.
How does the What price will Bitcoin hit in August prediction market resolve?
What price will Bitcoin hit in August? Multi-timeframe Polymarket event. Each listed timeframe is represented by its Yes price on the underlying binary market.
