Bitcoin is falling towards 63k, at a 10-day low, as a sell-off in AI-linked stocks has hit risk sentiment, spilling over into cryptocurrencies and as investors look cautiously ahead to tomorrow’s FOMC rate decision.
Bitcoin is down 2.7% over the past 24 hours and more than 4% over the past seven days as it extends its pullback from 67k the July high reached last week. Altcoins are also under pressure, with the total crypto market capitalisation falling 2.6% to $2.17 trillion.
AI jitters ramp up ahead of mega cap earnings this week
Weakness in crypto comes amid a sharp decline in technology stocks globally. South Korea’s Kospi has fallen 10% amid a sell-off in chip stocks, while Japan’s Nikkei closed 3.8% lower. Nasdaq futures are also pointing around 1% lower ahead of the open.
Jitters towards the AI trade come ahead of mega cap tech earnings this week from Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon. Alphabet’s increase in capex sent the stock 7% lower after earnings last week.
Fed rate hike expectations rise
Bitcoin is also falling as investors reassess Federal Reserve policy expectations. Strong labour market data, resilient business activity and elevated energy prices have kept inflation concerns alive, increasing the chances of either a Fed rate hike this week or, at the very least, a hawkish policy signal.
According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are now pricing in a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike at this week’s meeting, up from just 12% ten days ago. Expectations for a September rate hike have also risen to around 80%.
The shift in Fed expectations is weighing on Bitcoin. Higher interest rates typically mean tighter liquidity, which tends to be a headwind for risk assets.
BTC institutional demand remains weak and CLARITY Act stalls
At the same time, institutional demand for Bitcoin remains weak. Open interest in CME Bitcoin futures and options has fallen to multi-year lows, while spot ETF inflows have been too small to lift prices higher.
Bitcoin ETFs recorded a third straight day of net outflows on Monday, halting a modest three-week run of net inflows.
At the same time, optimism surrounding the Clarity Act has faded as the bill stalls in the Senate. Lawmakers are focused on a Russia sanctions package and processing federal nominations, narrowing the window for one of the cryptocurrency industry’s most closely watched regulatory bills to pass before the August recess. As a result, the legislation is unlikely to reach the Senate floor until next week at the earliest, removing another potential tailwind for Bitcoin.
BTC technical analysis
BTC’s recovery from 57.7K, the 2026 low, ran into resistance at 67K, the June high and falling trendline, before reversing lower, back below the 50 EMA. This, combined with the RSI below 50, keeps the outlook bearish.
Initial support is seen at the psychological 60K level. A break below here would expose the 2026 low at 57.7K. A move beneath this level would create a lower low, opening the door to 55K and then 50K, levels last seen in 2024.
Any recovery would first need to reclaim the 50 EMA around 65K before breaking above 67K, where the July high converges with the 100 EMA and falling trendline. A move above this resistance zone would create a higher high and expose the 200 EMA around 73.5K.
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